Written by: Emory Lyda
Basketball is (almost) back. Amidst communication scandals, blown leads, and an upcoming election, you might have forgotten a lot of what has happened in the seven months since Grant McCasland wrapped up his first season as Texas Tech’s coach with a loss to NC State. Rest assured, I can fill you in.
I am very excited to be covering Texas Tech Basketball throughout the season with Scarlet & Black Insider. While I was already planning on doing my usual long-winded Twitter threads and hopping on RC’s spaces from time to time, getting this platform and opportunity made me ramp up my preparation even more. I have watched pretty much every Red Raider Basketball game since the start of the Chris Beard era, but after a lot of film review and lineup analysis I can confidently say that I’m more excited for this team than any Tech team in the last decade. That does not necessarily mean I think they will be the best team, but the talent level and roster construction is very encouraging. Floor spacing, playmaking, rim protection, driving, and perimeter defense are all clearly on the table.
Over this two-part series I will preview the roster, with some analysis on each player and a lineup construction projection (which is a very rough idea! Substitutions in college are tricky). Today we will focus on the guards, and Monday we will dive into the forwards/bigs and look at the final lineup picture.
Departing Guards
Joe Toussaint (83.3% of minutes played)
Pop Isaacs (81.5%)
Lamar Washington (19.5%)
D’Maurian Williams (1.4%)
Returning Guards
Chance McMillian (67.3%)
Kerwin Walton (59.1%)
Jack Francis
Newcomers
Elijah Hawkins (Previous school: Minnesota)
Kevin Overton (Drake)
Christian Anderson (Oak Hill)
Jazz Henderson (Oak Cliff Faith Family)
Normally, it is a massive concern when you lose two guys that combined for over 2,200 minutes in the backcourt for you in a previous season. Pop Isaacs and Joe Toussaint were certainly constants in the Texas Tech backcourt last season, but both of them had their inconsistencies throughout the season. I covered Pop’s shooting slump at various points, and the final numbers were not pretty. 29.3% from three, 34.9% from the field, and a rough 48.7% at the rim. His true shooting percentage (48.5%) was the second-lowest of any power conference player last season.
That’s not to say that Pop was not valuable to the team- as his games against BYU and Texas were paramount in Red Raider wins and his huge shot against Northern Iowa in Atlantis saved the team from a possible back-breaking loss, but it is not a stretch to say that those efficiency numbers were unacceptable for a leading scorer.
Toussaint had prettier numbers, but struggled through conference play with the lowest Box Plus-Minus of any starter (.9) while shooting 28% from three. Both were solid playmakers, but there is reason to believe Tech’s new backcourt will be an improvement, if for no other reason than the stylistic fit they offer. Here is how I see the backcourt shaping up:
Projected Starters (2023-24 statline)
Elijah Hawkins (9.5 PPG/3.6 RPG/7.5 APG)
The NCAA’s active leader in assists per game took his talents to Lubbock over the off-season, and all reports would indicate that Hawkins will be the lead initiator for Tech’s offense. The Red Raiders have not had a player average more than five assists per game since John Roberson did it in 2010, back when Pat Knight was coaching the team. Hawkins has reached that mark every year of his college career, and finished second nationally last year in assists. Passing is obviously the main strength for Hawkins, but his general creativity in the PnR helped Minnesota shoot over 67% from the rim and generate a significant amount of open threes. Turnovers were an issue for him during his previous stint at Howard, but he cleaned it up significantly last year, averaging only 2.8 per game throughout the season and only having one game with more than four turnovers in conference play. His on-ball defense is decent considering his size and frame, and his shooting (a career 37% guy on over 340 attempts) is impressive.
My one concern with Hawkins is his finishing at the rim. He has never finished at above a 50% clip, and last year shot sub-40% on those shots in the halfcourt. Those numbers are abysmal, and they limit his potential as a finisher substantially. However, his burst and creative handle allow him to get to the paint effortlessly, so there is still value in using him as a driver.
Ultimately, Hawkins should be the leading guy in this backcourt from a minutes standpoint, although a minor foot injury might limit him slightly in the early games. He’s unlikely to score more than ten points per game, but the playmaking will open up the court for Tech’s shooters and scorers, which are plentiful on this roster.
Chance McMillian (10.8 PPG/4.0 RPG/1.2 APG)
McMillian only started one game for Texas Tech last year, but you could make a very good argument that he was Tech’s second-best player in Big 12 play. The 6’3 senior shook off a couple mid-season slumps to finish the year averaging over 10 points per game, shooting nearly 39% from range on five attempts per game. I mentioned last off-season that McMillian’s jumpshot was the prettiest I had seen come through the South Plains since Davide Moretti was wearing the scarlet and black, and year one proved that to be very accurate. His compact and quick release helps significantly in catch-and-shoot scenarios (94% of his makes from last year), but his handle improved throughout the year and he looked very promising as a self-creator by the end of the season. Hitting 52 percent of his midrange shots is a good example of that, and games against BYU and Houston in the conference tournament were ones where he showed value in creating his own looks. This year, with a guard like Hawkins running the offense, McMillian should be able to play to his strengths as a lethal CnS player who can act as a secondary ball-handler. Improving on his defense will be key, particularly at the point-of-attack, but this team is tailor-made for a player like McMillian to succeed. Oh, and of all the players on this team, he has the most capability to go nuclear and drop 20+ on ridiculous efficiency. Just ask Butler and Oklahoma.
Kerwin Walton (8.5 PPG/2.4 RPG/.5 APG)
Where Mark Adams and Hubert Davis struggled to find a way for Walton to contribute, Grant McCasland gave Walton the chance to play significant minutes for most of the season, particularly after Devan Cambridge went down in December. Walton responded, shooting 48% from three and averaging 8.5 points per game. Walton is one of the best shooters in the country, and although his lack of handle prevents him from being as dangerous off-the-dribble as some other players with his shooting skill, his gravity still opens up the floor for Tech’s drivers. Walton really does not do much other than shoot offensively; with only 55 two-point attempts all year and one of the worst assist rates you will see in college basketball, but his elite shooting and ability to play within the flow of the offense makes him a valuable floor spacer.
Defensively, Walton made strides towards being passable on the perimeter. His lack of lateral quickness, short arms, and relatively small stature makes him difficult to place on the court. Despite that, there was clear improvement on tape from what I saw at UNC and in year one for the Red Raiders. If Walton can continue to improve towards merely being an average defender, he will continue to see the floor more in his final year of college ball.
Other Key Contributors
Kevin Overton (11.0 PPG/3.3 RPG/1.1 APG)
I debated throwing Overton’s name in the starting lineup, but ultimately figured that McCasland will likely start Walton and McMillian, at least during the early days of non-conference ball. Still, Overton looked very good in his first year of college last year, playing starter minutes for a tournament team at Drake and putting up 11 points per contest. At 6’5 and a largely off-ball profile, Overton is more of a wing in nature, but will likely split time with McMillian and Walton throughout the year. His shooting form is better than the 34 percent mark would indicate, and his ability to finish at the rim (62.5 percent) is an underrated part of his game. Overton’s off-ball defense will earn him minutes throughout the season, and it was clear that Darian DeVries trusted him, giving him at least 20 minutes in every game. I would expect Overton to play a substantial role this season, and if the percentages are as good as the shot looks, I would suspect that he eventually finds himself in the starting lineup at some point.
Christian Anderson
If there’s one guy who I am excited to cover this season… it’s Christian Anderson. The freshman is the most talented pure scorer to commit to Tech that I can remember. His summer consisted of dragging Germany to a 7-0 record and a championship in the FIBA U18 Eurobasket Tournament, where he dazzled with highlights and averaged more than 20 points per game, capped off with a 31-point showing in the final against Serbia. Anderson is a fearless shooter, and while his international shooting splits do not look great (33% from three), his shot diet was way worse than what it will be in Lubbock. The Atlanta native is fearless, with an array of dribble moves, limitless range, and great touch around the rim. The playmaking is still not fully developed at this stage, as he projects more as a Mike Miles or Kyler Edwards-type than an Elijah Hawkins, but his scoring ability will be tough to keep him off the court from day one. He may not get to start due to the presence of Hawkins, but following Anderson’s development and seeing the freshman score in bunches will be a fun side-story to follow throughout the season.
Other Players
Jazz Henderson is likely out for the season due to an injury suffered in the last week, but was a redshirt candidate anyways. The former teammate of JT Toppin in high school is a long-term project, but will get meaningful experience within the program. The more Jack Francis we see, the better. Leon Horner will be covered with the forwards despite being listed as a wing, and I will explain that process in my next article.
Final Thoughts
This guard rotation is going to be fun. I expect Hawkins to play at least 30 minutes per night against quality competition, but every other player listed can complement him as a secondary ball-handler and dynamic scorer. Hawkins and McMillian are an improvement over the previous backcourt defensively, and the concept of having two primarily off-ball guards surrounding such an effective playmaker in Hawkins is one that I really like. I’ll dive more into a projected rotation in my next article, as there is some overlap in positional minutes between the guards and forwards, but for now, I am excited to see how this group of players end up.